THE IMPACT OF YOUTH BULGE ON SOUTH ASIA: LESSONS FOR BANGLADESH
Keywords:YOUTH BULGE ON SOUTH ASIA
Political scientists suggest a strong correlation between countries prone to civil conﬂicts and those with burgeoning youth populations. The theory of youth bulge contends that societies with rapidly growing young populations often end up with rampant unemployment and large pools of disaffected youths who are more susceptible to recruitment into rebel or terrorist groups. So-called “youth bulges” have been for many years a key concern in development given the implications for labour markets, government budgets, cultural norms and overall economic growth in countries where economic stagnation and unemployment are already major problems. Since early 1990s, awareness of the security dimensions of youth bulges took on a new prominence and more recently, youth bulges have become a popular explanation for current political instability in the Arab world and for recruitment to international terrorist networks. Demographers suggest that countries with a large proportion of young adults in the working-age population are much less likely to attain a stable liberal democracy either. A good number of demographers are also quick to stress that youth bulges do not lead inexorably to conﬂicts— corruption, ethno-religious tensions, poverty, and poor political institutions also play contributing roles. Obviously, large numbers of young people create special challenges and opportunities for societies. The bulge has the potential to create a demographic dividend in the right policy environment.
The South Asian region has been recognized for its large ratio of youth in the growing population. Bangladesh will have a relatively large workingage population including a major share of youth as compared to its dependent population over the next few decades. Policy makers and planners must be aware of the demographic dividend’s relevance to investment planning and human resources development. The majority of youth population in Bangladesh could be a boon for the country as young people have emerged as a major force behind economic development in many Asian countries. The demographic dividend is a unique window of opportunity that Bangladesh must not miss.
Alam, M. & Barrientos, A. 2011, ‘Demographic Landscape in South Asia: Youth Bulge and Ageing’, Brooks World Poverty Institute- worldpoverty@ manchester, Issue 12.
ASER 2012, ASER (Rural) Findings 2012, p.47. Retrieved 27 February 2013 from http://img.asercentre.org/docs/Publications/ASER%20Reports/ ASER_2012/nationalﬁnding.pdf
BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics) 2005, NIPORT, Mitra and Associates, and ORC Macro 2005.
BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics) 2012, ‘Socio-Economic and Demographic Report’, Population and Housing Census- 2011, National Series, Volume - 4.
BBS (b) (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics), ‘Socio-Economic And Demographic Report (Preliminary Results)’. Population and Housing Census- 2011, Ministry of Planning.
BBS(c) (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics) 2011, ‘Socio-Economic And Demographic Report 2011 (Key Findings)’. Statistics Division Ministry of Planning Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.
Berdal, M. & Malone, D. (eds) 2000, Greed & Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars, Boulder CO, London.
Beehner, L. 2007, The Effects of ‘Youth Bulge’ on Civil Conﬂicts. Retrieved 27 May 2013 from www.cfr.org/society-and-culture/effects-youth-bulgecivil-conﬂicts/p13093 2/5
Beehner, L. 2007, ‘Battle Youth Bulge’, Council on Foreign Relations, 27 April 2007, p. 1.
Bloom. D. E. Canning, D. & Rosenberg, L. 2011. ‘Demographic Change and Economic Growth in South Asia’. Harvard School of Public Health, Pp. 1-15.
Brittany, V.N. 2006, ‘Youth Bulges Over into Terrorism’, Voices of Tomorrow, Florida. Retrieved 01 June 2013 from http://www.voicesoftomorrow.org/us/ youth-bulges-over-into-terrorism/.
Cabras, A. 2010, ‘The Implications Of The Youth Bulge In Middle East And North African Populations’, Mediterranean and Middle East Special Group Annual Report 2011. Retrieved 2 May 2013 from www.natopa.int/Default.a sp%3FSHORTCUT%3D2118&error=2152398878.
Cincotta. R. P. 2004, Demographic Security Comes of Age. Wilson Centre. Retrieved 7 May 2013 from http://www.wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/ ecspr10_C-cincotta.pdf
Cincotta, R. P. 2009, ‘Half a Chance: Youth Bulges and Transitions to liberal Democracy’. ECSP Report.
Cincotta, R. P. 2009, ‘Half a Chance: Youth Bulges and transitions to Liberal Democracy’, Environmental Change and Security Program Report, Issue 13.
Collier, P. 2000, ‘Doing Well Out of War: An Economic Perspective’ in Greed & Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars, eds Mats Berdal & David M. Malone, Boulder CO, London, Pp. 91–111.
Colombo Page 2012, UNESCO Report Recognizes Sri Lanka’s Achievements In Youth Development Programs, The Colombo Page, 16 October 2012, (http://www.colombopage.com/archive_12A/Oct16_1350404733CH.php).
Denyer, D. 2011, ‘Amid population boom, India hopes for demographic dividend but fears disaster’, The Washington Post, Asia Paciﬁc,
Duryea, S. & M. Morales 2011, ‘Effects of the Global Financial Crisis on Children’s School and Employment Outcomes in El Salvador’, Development Policy Review 29(5), Pp. 527-46.
Hart, D. Atkins, R. Markey, P. & Youniss, J. 2004, ‘Youth Bulges in Communities’, Psychological Science, Vol. 15, No. 5, p. 591.
Foster. E. J. & Alkire. S. 2010. Counting and Multidimensional Poverty Measurement, p. 7. Retrieved 29 April 2013 from http://www.un.org/en/ga/ second/65/docs/foster.pdf.
Fuller, G. E. 2003, The Youth Factor: The New Demographics Of The Middle East And The Implications For U.S. Policy, Pp. 1-11.
Gubhaju. B. Bhakta. 2013. ‘Demographic Dividends in South Asia: a window of opportunity’, East Asia Forum Quarterly. Retrieved 30 April 2013 from www.eastasiaforum.org.
Goldstone, J. A. 2001, ‘Demography, Environment, and Security, in Environmental Conﬂict’, eds Paul F. Diehl & Nils Petter Gleditsch, Boulder CO, Westview, Pp. 84–108.
Green, D. King, R & Miller-Dawkins, M. 2010, ‘The Global Economic Crisis and Developing Countries: Impact and Response’, Oxfam Research Report, Oxfam, GB.
Gurmeet K. 2011, Continuing Instability in South Asia is in the Cards, Pp. 1-4.
Heltberg, R., N. Hossain, A. Reva & C. Turk. 2012. ‘Anatomy of Coping: Evidence from People Living through the Crises of 2008-1’, Policy Research Working Paper No. 5957, World Bank.
ILO n.d. ‘Article C138’, ILO Convention 1973
ILO 2011a, Global Employment Trends for Youth: 2011 Update, Geneva: ILO.
ILO 2011b, World of Work Report 2011: Making Markets Work for Jobs, Geneva: ILO.
Joseph. T 2012, ‘The Middle Class Needs a Party’, Business Standard, p.1
Jimenez, Emmanuel Y. and Mamta M. 2006. ‘Investing in the Youth Bulge’, World Bank Finance and Development Report, p. 43.
Lia, B. 2005, Globalisation and the Future of Terrorism: Patterns and Predictions, Routledge, London and New York.
Lisa Mastny 2003, ‘The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conﬂict after the Cold War’, Population Action International,Washington, D.C.
Lodhi, M. 2012, ‘Pakistan’s Youth Bulge’, The Khaleej Times, 24 October 2012. p. 2.
Mastny, L. 2003, Hazards of Youth. Retrieved 15 May 2013 from www. worldwatch.org/pubs/mag/.
Melik, J. 2012, ‘What Future Awaits Bangladeshi Youth’, BBC World Service, Business Daily, 03 December 2012.
Moller. H. 1968. ‘Youth as a Force in the Modern World’, Comparative Studies in Society and History, Vol. 10. Issue 3, April 1968. Pp. 249-250.
Machunovich, D. J. 2000, ‘Relative Cohort Size: Source of a Unifying Theory of Global Fertility Transition?’, Population and Development Review, Vol. 26, No. 2, Pp. 235–261.
Okul, P. 2012, ‘Demographic Transition and the Youth Bulge- the case of Kenya 2012’, National Council of Churches of Kenya, p. 5.
Ortiz, I. & Cummins, M. 2012, ‘When the Global Crisis and Youth Bulge Collide’, UNICEF Social and Economic Policy Working Paper, Issue February 2012.
Raisul. S. M. Islam 2011, Unemployment Problem in Bangladesh. (http:// www.academia.edu).
Rahman, M. Z. 2004, ‘Globalization and Future of Youth in Asia’, Country Paper Presented in Symposium on Globalization and Future of Youth in Asia, UN House, Tokyo, Japan.
Rajendram, D. 2013, ‘Promise and Peril of India’s Youth Bulge’, The Diplomat, 10 March 2013.
Rajendram, D.. 2013, ‘The Promise and Peril of India’s Youth Bulge’, The Diplomat, Retrieved 5 April 2013 from http://thediplomat.com/2013/03/10/ the-promise-and-peril-of-indias-youth-bulge/
Raihan, S. 2009. ‘Impact of Food Price Rise on School Enrolment and Dropout in the Poor and Vulnerable Households in Selected Areas of Bangladesh’. Dhaka: United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID).
Rosenberg, S 2011, ‘Terriﬁc Graph from Economist on “Youth Bulge” in ME/NA’, New Democrat Network (NDN). Retrieved on 29 April 2013 from ndn.org.
Swanson, R. & Vaishnav, M. 2012, The Generation Gap of Governance, The Indian Express,14 November 2012, p. 1.
The Economist 2013, India’s demographic challenge - Wasting time, Issue 11 May 2013, Patna, Bihar.
Urdal, H. 2011, ‘A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence’, United Nations Expert Group Meeting On Adolescents, Youth And Development, p.1.
UNDP 2013, ‘India report – 2013’, Country Proﬁle: Human Development Indicator.
UNDP 2010, Poverty and Social Impact Analysis of the Global Economic Crisis: Synthesis Report of 18 Country Studies. New York: UNDP.
UNDP n.d. UNDP Pakistan – Youth Census. Retrieved 30 May 2012 from http://undp.org.pk/pakistan-undp-and-youth.html.
UNFPA 2005, ‘The Promise of Equality’, State of World Population 2005.
United Nations 2009. World Population Prospects. The 2008 Revision.
Wade, M. 2011, ‘Demographic Dividend to Deﬁcit’, . Retrieved 28 April 2013 from http://www.smh.com.au/business/from-demographic-dividendto-deﬁcit-20110926-1ktj8.html
World Bank 2011, ‘Conﬂict, Security, and Development’, World Development Report 2011. Retrieved 8 May 2013 from http://wdr2011.worldbank.org/.
World Bank 2010. World Development Indicators 2010.
Winckler, O. 2002, ‘The Demographic Dilemma of the Arab World: The Employment Aspect’, Journal of Contemporary History, Vol. 37(4), Pp. 617-636.
Wiki/South_Asia n.d. South Asia Demography, Retrieved 19 May 2013 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Asia#Demographics
Wikimedia n.d. Demographic transition models. Retrieved 16 May 2013 from http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Dtm_pyramids.png.
World Bank 2013, World Development Indicators – Bangladesh. Retrieved 25 March 2013 from http://data.worldbank.org/country/bangladesh
Wheatley, J. 2013, ‘EM Youth Bulge: A Demographic Dividend Or Time Bomb’, Financial Times, 02 May 2013.
Youth Parliament n.d. ‘Sri Lanka Youth Parliament’, National Youth Services Council,(web address- http://www.srilankayouthparliament.org/about-us/)
Zepeda, E. McDonald, S. Panda, P & Kumar, K. 2013, ‘Employing India: Guaranteeing Jobs for the Rural Poor’, Carnegie- Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved 23 April 2013 from http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/02/11/employing-india-guaranteeing-jobs-for-rural-poor/ff2s